Examining the immediate and ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-based estimates of dementia: a population-based time series analysis in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Population-based chronic disease surveillance systems were likely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to examine the immediate and ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the claims-based incidence of dementia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis from January 2015 to December 2021 in Ontario, Canada. We calculated the monthly claims-based incidence of dementia using a validated case ascertainment algorithm drawing from routinely collected health administrative data. We used autoregressive linear models to compare the claims-based incidence of dementia during the COVID-19 period (2020-2021) to the expected incidence had the pandemic not occurred, controlling for seasonality and secular trends. We examined incidence by source of ascertainment and across strata of sex, age, community size and number of health conditions. RESULTS: The monthly claims-based incidence of dementia dropped from a 2019 average of 11.9 per 10 000 to 8.5 per 10 000 in April 2020 (32.6% lower than expected). The incidence returned to expected levels by late 2020. Across the COVID-19 period there were a cumulative 2990 (95% CI 2109 to 3704) fewer cases of dementia observed than expected, equivalent to 1.05 months of new cases. Despite the overall recovery, ascertainment rates continued to be lower than expected among individuals aged 65-74 years and in large urban areas. Ascertainment rates were higher than expected in hospital and among individuals with 11 or more health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The claims-based incidence of dementia recovered to expected levels by late 2020, suggesting minimal long-term changes to population-based dementia surveillance. Continued monitoring of claims-based incidence is necessary to determine whether the lower than expected incidence among individuals aged 65-74 and in large urban areas, and higher than expected incidence among individuals with 11 or more health conditions, is transitory.

Visits to the emergency department by community-dwelling people with dementia during the first 2 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: a repeated cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Community-dwelling people with dementia have been affected by COVID-19 pandemic health risks and control measures that resulted in worsened access to health care and service cancellation. One critical access point in health systems is the emergency department. We aimed to determine the change in weekly rates of visits to the emergency department of community-dwelling people with dementia in Ontario during the first 2 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with historical patterns. METHODS: We conducted a population-based repeated cross-sectional study and used health administrative databases to compare rates of visits to the emergency department among community-dwelling people with dementia who were aged 40 years and older in Ontario during the first 2 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-February 2021) with the rates of a historical period (March 2019-February 2020). Weekly rates of visits to the emergency department were evaluated overall, by urgency and by chapter from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision. We used Poisson models to compare pandemic and historical rates at the week of the lowest rate during the pandemic period and the latest week. RESULTS: We observed large immediate declines in rates of visits to the emergency department during the COVID-19 pandemic (rate ratio [RR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.53), which remained below historical levels by the end of the second wave (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.92). Rates of both nonurgent (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.28-0.39) and urgent (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.48-0.55) visits to the emergency department also declined and remained low (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.59-0.79, RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.96), respectively. Visits for injuries, and circulatory, respiratory and musculoskeletal diseases declined and remained below historical levels. INTERPRETATION: Prolonged reductions in visits to the emergency department among people with dementia during the first 2 pandemic waves raise concerns about patients who delay seeking acute care services. Understanding the long-term effects of these reductions requires further research.

Follow-up after post-partum psychiatric emergency department visits: an equity-focused population-based study in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department visits for a psychiatric reason in the post-partum period represent an acute need for mental health care at a crucial time, but little is known about the extent of timely outpatient follow-up after these visits or how individual and intersecting social determinants of health influence this outcome. This study aimed to examine outpatient mental health care follow-up by a physician in the 30 days after an individual attended the emergency department for a psychiatric reason in the post-partum period and understand how social determinants of health affect who receives follow-up care. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, routinely collected health data from Ontario, Canada were accessed through ICES to identify all post-partum individuals whose sex was listed as female on their health card and who had attended an emergency department in Ontario before the COVID-19 pandemic for a psychiatric reason. Individuals admitted to hospital at the time of the emergency department visit, who died during the visit, or who left without being seen were excluded from the study. Ethnicity data for individuals were not collected. The primary outcome was the proportion of individuals with any outpatient physician (psychiatrist or family physician) visit for a mental health reason within 30 days of the index emergency department visit. Family physician mental health visits were identified using a validated algorithm for Ontario Health Insurance Plan-billed visits and mental health diagnostic codes for community health centre visits. We examined the associations between social determinants of health (age, neighbourhood income, community size, immigration, neighbourhood ethnic diversity) and who received an outpatient mental health visit. We used modified Poisson regression adjusting for the other social determinants of health, clinical, and health services characteristics to examine independent associations with follow-up, and conditional inference trees to explore how social determinants of health intersect with each other and with clinical and health services characteristics in relation to follow-up. FINDINGS: We analysed data collected between April 1, 2008, and March 10, 2020, after exclusions we identified 12 158 people who had attended the emergency department for a psychiatric reason in the post-partum period (mean age 26·9 years [SD 6·2]; range 13-47); 9848 individuals lived in an urban area, among these 1518 (15·5%) were immigrants and 2587 (26·3%) lived in areas with high ethnic diversity. 5442 (44·8%) of 12 158 individuals received 30-day follow-up. In modified Poisson regression models, younger age, lower neighbourhood income, smaller community size, and being an immigrant were associated with a lower likelihood of follow-up. In the CTREE, similar variables were important, with several intersections between social determinants of health and between social determinants of health and other variables. INTERPRETATION: Fewer than half of emergency department visits for a psychiatric reason in the post-partum period were followed by timely outpatient care, with social-determinants-of-health-based disparities in access to care. Improvements in equitable access to post-emergency department mental health care are urgently needed in this high-risk post-partum population. FUNDING: Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto; Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Greater Opioid Use Among Nursing Home Residents in Ontario, Canada During the First 2 Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and opioid use among nursing home residents followed up to March 2021, and possible variation by dementia and frailty status. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study with an interrupted time series analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Linked health administrative databases for residents of all nursing homes (n = 630) in Ontario, Canada were examined. Residents were divided into consecutive weekly cohorts (first observation week was March 5 to 11, 2017 and last was March 21 to March 27, 2021). METHODS: The weekly proportion of residents dispensed an opioid was examined overall and by strata defined by the presence of dementia and frailty. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with step and ramp intervention functions tested for immediate level and slope changes in weekly opioid use after the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020) and were fit on prepandemic data for projected trends. RESULTS: The average weekly cohort ranged from 76,834 residents (prepandemic) to 69,359 (pandemic period), with a consistent distribution by sex (69% female) and age (54% age 85 + years). There was a statistically significant increased slope change in the weekly proportion of residents dispensed opioids (parameter estimate (ß) = 0.035; standard error (SE) = 0.005, P < .001). Although significant for all 4 strata, the increased slope change was more pronounced among nonfrail residents (ß = 0.038; SE = 0.008, P < .001) and those without dementia (ß = 0.044; SE = 0.008, P < .001). The absolute difference in observed vs predicted opioid use in the last week of the pandemic period ranged from 1.25% (frail residents) to 2.28% (residents without dementia). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Among Ontario nursing home residents, there was a statistically significant increase in opioid dispensations following the onset of the pandemic that persisted up to 1 year later. Investigations of the reasons for increased use, potential for long-term use and associated health consequences for residents are warranted.

Pivoting data and analytic capacity to support Ontario's COVID-19 response.

Introduction: Health care systems have faced unprecedented challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to timely population-based data has been vital to informing public health policy and practice. Methods: We describe how ICES, an independent not-for-profit research and analytic institute in Ontario, Canada, pivoted existing research infrastructure and engaged health system stakeholders to provide near real-time population-based data and analytics to support Ontario's COVID-19 pandemic response. Results: Since April 2020, ICES provided the Ontario COVID-19 Provincial Command Table and public health partners with regular and ad hoc reports on SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 vaccine coverage. These reports: 1) helped identify congregate care/shared living settings that needed testing and prevention efforts early in the pandemic; 2) provided early indications of inequities in testing and infection in marginalized neighbourhoods, including areas with higher proportions of immigrants and visible minorities; 3) identified areas with high test positivity, which helped Public Health Units target and evaluate prevention efforts; and 4) contributed to altering the province's COVID-19 vaccine roll-out strategy to target high-risk neighbourhoods and helping Public Health Units and community organizations plan local vaccination programs. In addition, ICES is a key component of the Ontario Health Data Platform, which provides scientists with data access to conduct COVID-19 research and analyses. Discussion and Conclusion: ICES was well-positioned to provide rapid analyses for decision-makers to respond to the evolving public health emergency, and continues to contribute to Ontario's pandemic response by providing timely, relevant reports to health system stakeholders and facilitating data access for externally-funded COVID-19 research.

Trends in Health Service Use for Canadian Adults With Dementia and Parkinson Disease During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Persons with dementia and Parkinson disease (PD) are vulnerable to disruptions in health care and services. Objective: To examine changes in health service use among community-dwelling persons with dementia, persons with PD, and older adults without neurodegenerative disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design Setting and Participants: Repeated cross-sectional analysis using population-based administrative data among community-dwelling persons with dementia, persons with PD, and adults 65 years and older at the start of each week from March 1 through the week of September 20, 2020 (pandemic period), and March 3 through the week of September 22, 2019 (historical period), in Ontario, Canada. Exposures: COVID-19 pandemic as of March 1, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were weekly rates of emergency department visits, hospitalizations, nursing home admissions, home care, virtual and in-person physician visits, and all-cause mortality. Poisson regression models were used to calculate weekly rate ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs comparing pandemic weeks with historical levels. Results: Among those living in the community as of March 1, 2020, persons with dementia (n = 131 466; mean [SD] age, 80.1 [10.1] years) were older than persons with PD (n = 30 606; 73.7 [10.2] years) and older adults (n = 2 363 742; 74.0 [7.1] years). While all services experienced declines, the largest drops occurred in nursing home admissions (RR for dementia: 0.10; 95% CI, 0.07-0.15; RR for PD: 0.03; 95% CI, 0.00-0.21; RR for older adults: 0.11; 95% CI, 0.06-0.18) and emergency department visits (RR for dementia: 0.45; 95% CI, 0.41-0.48; RR for PD: 0.40; 95% CI, 0.34-0.48; RR for older adults: 0.45; 95% CI, 0.44-0.47). After the first wave, most services returned to historical levels except physician visits, which remained elevated (RR for dementia: 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09; RR for PD: 1.10, 95% CI, 1.06-1.13) and shifted toward virtual visits. Older adults continued to experience lower hospitalizations. All-cause mortality was elevated across cohorts. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based repeated cross-sectional study in Ontario, Canada, those with dementia, those with PD, and older adults sought hospital care far less than usual, were not admitted to nursing homes, and experienced excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic. Most services returned to historical levels, but virtual physician visits remained a feature of care. While issues of equity and quality of care are still emerging among persons with neurodegenerative diseases, policies to support virtual care are necessary.

The impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on health service use by persons with dementia in Ontario, Canada: A population-based time series analysis

Background Little has been quantified, at a population-level, about the magnitude of heath service disruption to persons living with dementia in community settings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustained access to health care services is particularly important for persons with dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases as they are vulnerable to decline. Method Health administrative data from Ontario, Canada were used to examine patterns of health service use among all persons with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (dementia) who were alive and living in the community. This cohort was compared to persons with Parkinson?s disease (PD) as well as all older adults (age 65+ years) without neurodegenerative diseases. Rates of all-cause hospital admissions, emergency department visits, primary care and specialist physician visits and home care visits were analyzed for all individuals alive and eligible for provincial health insurance at the start of each weekly period from March 1, 2020 to September 20, 2020 (pandemic period) and from March 3, 2019 to September 22, 2019 (pre-pandemic period). Rates of health service use during specific weeks in the pandemic period (i.e., lowest week, last available week) were compared to corresponding weeks in the pre-pandemic period within each cohort using percent changes. Results On March 1, 2020, 128,696 persons with dementia, 30,099 with PD and 2,460,358 older adults were eligible for provincial health services. Across cohorts and services, dramatic declines in use of health services were observed at the lowest week: hospitalization (-38.7% dementia, -72.3% PD, -44.2% older adults);emergency department (-54.9% dementia, -57.7% PD, -53.6% older adults);home care (-14.8% dementia, -19.4% PD, -7.4% older adults). Health services varied in how quickly they rebounded to pre-pandemic levels within cohorts;notably, by the end of the study period, emergency department visits had increased to a level higher than corresponding 2019 weekly rates (24.2% dementia, 15.2% PD, 7.4% older adults). Conclusions The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic meaningfully and immediately disrupted use of health care services for persons living with dementia and PD and may have resulted in long-term consequences that should be monitored.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Outpatient Antibiotic Prescriptions in Ontario, Canada; An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has potentially impacted outpatient antibiotic prescribing. Investigating this impact may identify stewardship opportunities in the ongoing COVID-19 period and beyond. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis on outpatient antibiotic prescriptions and antibiotic prescriptions/patient visits in Ontario, Canada, between January 2017 and December 2020 to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-level antibiotic prescribing by prescriber specialty, patient demographics, and conditions. RESULTS: In the evaluated COVID-19 period (March-December 2020), there was a 31.2% (95% CI, 27.0% to 35.1%) relative reduction in total antibiotic prescriptions. Total outpatient antibiotic prescriptions decreased during the COVID-19 period by 37.1% (95% CI, 32.5% to 41.3%) among family physicians, 30.7% (95% CI, 25.8% to 35.2%) among subspecialist physicians, 12.1% (95% CI, 4.4% to 19.2%) among dentists, and 25.7% (95% CI, 21.4% to 29.8%) among other prescribers. Antibiotics indicated for respiratory infections decreased by 43.7% (95% CI, 38.4% to 48.6%). Total patient visits and visits for respiratory infections decreased by 10.7% (95% CI, 5.4% to 15.6%) and 49.9% (95% CI, 43.1% to 55.9%). Total antibiotic prescriptions/1000 visits decreased by 27.5% (95% CI, 21.5% to 33.0%), while antibiotics indicated for respiratory infections/1000 visits with respiratory infections only decreased by 6.8% (95% CI, 2.7% to 10.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in outpatient antibiotic prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic was driven by less antibiotic prescribing for respiratory indications and largely explained by decreased visits for respiratory infections.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Home Care Services Among Community-Dwelling Adults With Dementia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted use of home care services for individuals with dementia across service types and sociodemographic strata. DESIGN: Population-based time series analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults with dementia in Ontario, Canada, from January 2019 to September 2020. METHODS: We used health administrative databases (Ontario Registered Persons Database and Home Care Database) to measure home care services used by participants. Poisson regression models were fit to compare weekly rates of home care services during the pandemic to historical trends with rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) stratified by service type (nursing, personal care, therapy), sex, rurality, and neighborhood income quintile. RESULTS: During the first wave of the pandemic, personal care fell by 16% compared to historical levels (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.84, 0.85) and therapies fell by 50% (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.48, 0.52), whereas nursing did not significantly decline (RR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.04). All rates had recovered by September 2020, with nursing and therapies higher than historical levels. Changes in services were largely consistent across sociodemographic strata, although the rural population experienced a larger decline in personal care and smaller rebound in nursing. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Personal care and therapies for individuals with dementia were interrupted during the early months of the pandemic, whereas nursing was only minimally impacted. Pandemic responses with the potential to disrupt home care for individuals living with dementia must balance the impacts on individuals with dementia, caregivers, and providers.

Background rates of all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department visits among nursing home residents in Ontario, Canada to inform COVID-19 vaccine safety assessments.

BACKGROUND: Nursing home (NH) residents are prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination. We report monthly mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department (ED) visit incidence rates (IRs) during 2010-2020 to provide context for COVID-19 vaccine safety assessments. METHODS: We observed outcomes among all NH residents in Ontario using administrative databases. IRs were calculated by month, sex, and age group. Comparisons between months were assessed using one-sample t-tests; comparisons by age and sex were assessed using chi-squared tests. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, there were 83,453 (SD: 652.4) NH residents per month, with an average of 2.3 (SD: 0.28) deaths, 3.1 (SD: 0.16) hospitalizations, and 3.6 (SD: 0.17) ED visits per 100 residents per month. From March to December 2020, mortality IRs were increased, but hospitalization and ED visit IRs were reduced (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: We identified consistent monthly mortality, hospitalization, and ED visit IRs during 2010-2019. Marked differences in these rates were observed during 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparison of Medication Prescribing Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Nursing Home Residents in Ontario, Canada.

Importance: COVID-19 has had devastating effects on the health and well-being of older adult residents and health care professionals in nursing homes. Uncertainty about the associated consequences of these adverse effects on the use of medications common to this care setting remains. Objective: To examine the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and prescription medication changes among nursing home residents. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study with an interrupted time-series analysis used linked health administrative data bases for residents of all nursing homes (N = 630) in Ontario, Canada. During the observation period, residents were divided into consecutive weekly cohorts. The first observation week was March 5 to 11, 2017; the last observation week was September 20 to 26, 2020. Exposures: Onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on March 1, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly proportion of residents dispensed antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, antidepressants, anticonvulsants, opioids, antibiotics, angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with step and ramp intervention functions tested for level and slope changes in weekly medication use after the onset of the pandemic and were fit on prepandemic data for projected trends. Results: Across study years, the annual cohort size ranged from 75 850 to 76 549 residents (mean [SD] age, 83.4 [10.8] years; mean proportion of women, 68.9%). A significant increased slope change in the weekly proportion of residents who were dispensed antipsychotics (parameter estimate [ß] = 0.051; standard error [SE] = 0.010; P < .001), benzodiazepines (ß = 0.026; SE = 0.003; P < .001), antidepressants (ß = 0.046; SE = 0.013; P < .001), trazodone hydrochloride (ß = 0.033; SE = 0.010; P < .001), anticonvulsants (ß = 0.014; SE = 0.006; P = .03), and opioids (ß = 0.038; SE = 0.007; P < .001) was observed. The absolute difference in observed vs estimated use in the last week of the pandemic period ranged from 0.48% (for anticonvulsants) to 1.52% (for antipsychotics). No significant level or slope changes were found for antibiotics, ARBs, or ACE inhibitors. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, statistically significant increases in the use of antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, antidepressants, anticonvulsants, and opioids followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, although absolute differences were small. There were no significant changes for antibiotics, ARBs, or ACE inhibitors. Studies are needed to monitor whether changes in pharmacotherapy persist, regress, or accelerate during the course of the pandemic and how these changes affect resident-level outcomes.

The Role of a Resilient Information Infrastructure in COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Ontario.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for a robust and nimble public health data infrastructure. ICES - a government-sponsored, independent, non-profit research institute in Ontario, Canada - functions as a key component of a resilient information infrastructure and an enabler of data co-production, contributing to Ontario's response to the COVID-19 pandemic as part of a learning health system. Linked data on the cumulative incidence of infection and vaccination at the neighbourhood level revealed disparate uptake between areas with low versus high risk of COVID-19. These data were leveraged by the government, service providers, media and the public to inform a more efficient and equitable vaccination strategy.

Loneliness among older adults in the community during COVID-19: a cross-sectional survey in Canada.

OBJECTIVE: Physical distancing and stay-at-home measures implemented to slow transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may intensify feelings of loneliness in older adults, especially those living alone. Our aim was to characterise the extent of loneliness during the first wave in a sample of older adults living in the community and assess characteristics associated with loneliness. DESIGN: Online cross-sectional survey between 6 May and 19 May 2020. SETTING: Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of members of a national retired educators' organisation. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported loneliness, including differences between women and men. RESULTS: 4879 respondents (71.0% women; 67.4% 65-79 years) reported that in the preceding week, 43.1% felt lonely at least some of the time, including 8.3% who felt lonely always or often. Women had increased odds of loneliness compared with men, whether living alone (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.52, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.04) or with others (2.44, 95% CI 2.04 to 2.92). Increasing age group decreased the odds of loneliness (aOR 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.81) 65-79 years and 0.50 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.65) 80+ years compared with <65 years). Living alone was associated with loneliness, with a greater association in men (aOR 4.26, 95% CI 3.15 to 5.76) than women (aOR 2.65, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.11). Other factors associated with loneliness included: fair or poor health (aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.41), being a caregiver (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.37), receiving care (aOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.81), high concern for the pandemic (aOR 1.55, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.84), not experiencing positive effects of pandemic distancing measures (aOR 1.94, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.32) and changes to daily routine (aOR 2.81, 95% CI 1.96 to 4.03). CONCLUSIONS: While many older adults reported feeling lonely during COVID-19, several characteristics-such as being female and living alone-increased the odds of loneliness. These characteristics may help identify priorities for targeting interventions to reduce loneliness.